Dear MEPIN Readers,
In today’s interview, I assess whether President Trump’s State of the Union address amounted to a strategic case for potential kinetic action against Iran.
The President argued that for 47 years the regime in Tehran has exported terrorism, fueled regional instability, and brutally suppressed its own people, citing the killing of 32,000 protesters as evidence of systemic repression. The question is whether his framing signals that Washington sees a narrowing window to act or make a deal.
I argue that this may represent a last, best opportunity to significantly degrade Iran’s capabilities while also increasing pressure on a regime facing deep domestic discontent and economic collapse.
Two developments are particularly consequential:
- The continued fortification of facilities such as Pickaxe Mountain near Natanz, which could dramatically complicate future military options because of its depth.
- Iran’s efforts to acquire fifth-generation aircraft and supersonic anti-ship missiles from China — capabilities that would raise the cost and risk of any future U.S. operation.
Watch the full interview for a breakdown of the military, strategic, and political implications. — Eric