Will America Reevaluate Ties with Turkey as Part of Middle East Vision?
Does the administration also realize that Turkey under Erdogan is no different from the Muslim Brotherhood’s ideology that Sisi overthrew?
America’s
reinvigorated role in the Middle East,” laid out a new American vision in sharp
contrast to President Barack Obama’s speech 10 years ago.
Pompeo described Obama’s vision as distancing America away from its traditional
allies, Israel and the Sunni Gulf States, his goal being a path to a new
relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran that culminated with the JCPOA
(Iran Nuclear Deal). Notably absent from Pompeo’s speech was any mention of
Turkey as an American ally.
How significant this speech will be as a turning point in
America’s engagement with its allies and adversaries in the region remains to
be seen. According to the New York Times, Pompeo “vowed to increase
the pressure until Iran halts… its ‘malign activities’ throughout the
Mideast.” Critics have claimed the speech lacked details and was
hyper-partisan.
Although National Security Advisor John Bolton and Pompeo mean what they say,
it is ultimately the commander in chief who will decide American policy. One
speech will not reassure America’s allies in the region, especially after the
president decided to take the advice of President Erdogan of Turkey over his
own foreign policy team regarding withdrawal of US troops from Syria.
The continued mixed messaging, even after Bolton said the Syrian policy had
changed to a conditional withdrawal, has left allies unsure whether they can
rely on US assurances in planning for their future security. Keeping your
enemies guessing is a legitimate strategy, but it is unhelpful to do that to
your allies and your own foreign policy advisers.
In his Cairo speech, Pompeo said, “We grossly underestimated the tenacity and
viciousness of radical Islamism,” while praising Egyptian President Sisi for
confronting this threat.
But this begs the question; does the administration also realize that Turkey
under Erdogan is no different from the Muslim Brotherhood’s ideology that Sisi
overthrew?
Clearly, Iran is enemy number one for this administration, but how concerned is
the President about Turkey’s nearly twenty-year Islamist rule that has been
undermining our security interests?
As Tom Rogan wrote in the Washington Examiner, “Where Turkey was once a
reliable Eurasian center for free trade, the rule of law and secular democracy,
Erdogan has built an Islamist authoritarian state driven by corrupt
patronage… At present, Turkey is extracting the benefits of its alliance with
America without any responsibility.”
Trump Expected To Propose Weakening Obama-era Wetland Protections
Erdogan may feel immune to any consequences for his behavior, because he
believes the United States needs Turkey as a counterweight to Syrian President
Assad, and to reign in ISIS and al-Qaeda aligned militias.
SO DOES a president who values transactional negotiations see Erdogan as a
friend, an enemy or something in between, a frenemy?
Erdogan’s public humiliation of Bolton and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff John Dunford, by canceling their scheduled meeting, was a slap in the
face to America. Perhaps it should be the tipping point to re-evaluate the
stability and reliability of the relationship.
Getting this relationship right is crucial for stability in the region. Turkey
has the second largest armed force in NATO, houses a pivotal but not vital
American air base in Incirlik, is a crucial part of the production line for
America’s next generation F-35 fighter, yet still desires to purchase the
Russian S-400 anti-missile system. If Turkey incorporates a Russian system into
NATO defenses, this relationship’s status will rise to the level of a crisis
for American security.
In theory, Turkey as a Sunni state should be helpful in confronting Iran, a
Shi’ite state, that like Turkey harbors grandiose desires to control the whole
Middle East. But Turkey has gotten into bed with Russia and Iran, whose primary
goal is to undermine American interests. Turkey has also pledged to destroy
America’s only true ally in Syria, the YPG Kurds.
Pompeo said, “President Trump has reversed our willful blindness to the danger
of the (Iranian) regime and withdrew from the failed nuclear deal, with its
false promises.”
The question going forward is, will the president end our “willful blindness”
to the dangers of an Islamist Turkey?
Trump needs to tell Erdogan that it’s time for Turkey to choose which side it
is on, and act accordingly.
The author is the director of MEPIN™ (Middle East Political and Information
Network™), and is a regular contributor to The Jerusalem Post. MEPIN™ is a
Middle East research analysis read by members of Congress, foreign policy
advisers, Knesset members, journalists and organizational leaders.