Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa meets with US President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in Riyadh last month. SAUDI PRESS AGENCY/REUTERS
A recent Wall Street Journal headline read, “Trump’s Middle East Tour Boosts Arab States at Israel’s Expense. But White House disagreements with Israel have more to do with the President’s agenda than a long-term divergence, analysts say.” Joel Rayburn, Trump’s nominee to be the State Department’s top Middle East official, said Gulf countries are “becoming the partner of choice.”
It’s not the news Israelis want to hear while fighting on seven fronts.
As I write this article to assess the current state of the US-Israel relationship and its impact on future relations, I realize that so many people who care deeply about the importance of maintaining and growing the partnership focus exclusively on the current leaders of each government. A partnership built mainly on the present-day leaders who will, in time, move on and not established firmly on the fundamental reasons and interests for preserving the relationship, i.e., shared values, strategic importance, geo-political relevance, etc., will be less likely to stand the test of time.
This is not to minimize the importance of personal relationships in forging foreign policy. During World War Two, the personal connection between FDR and Churchill may have saved the free world from Nazism, as they looked ahead of an isolationist American public that was in no mood to get into another European war until provoked by the surprise Japanese attack on the American fleet in the Pacific. For Israelis, unlike America after Pearl Harbor, there is no coming back from an atomic bomb explosion.
America and Israel have had their ups and downs. Today, many people of a certain age look fondly back at the relationship in the Reagan years with his very pro-Israel Secretary of State George Schultz. But time has blurred the memory of his hostile Secretary of Defense Casper Weinberger, America voting in favor of a UNSC resolution condemning Israel after its successful strike on the Iraqi nuclear facility in Osirik and delaying delivery of fighter jets, or the contentious debate, which Israel lost, over America selling AWAC planes to Saudi Arabia, with Reagan reportedly telling Israeli leaders, “If not for AWACS, there will be no strategic cooperation [with Israel].” The point is that the inability to see eye to eye is not unusual during all Presidencies and Israeli coalition governments.
America has its interests, and Israel has its own. Fortunately for both nations, US national security interests ally with Israel the vast majority of the time for security minded Republicans and Democrats. But with isolationists and critics of Israel in the ascendency, are we at a generational crossroads in American foreign policy, where those shared interests of the last fifty years are diverging enough to threaten the significance of the US-Israel relationship?
Unfortunately, the isolationist wing of the Republican party, which has the President’s ear, and the overtly hostile rising Progressive wing of the Democratic party do not see Israel as vital to advancing American foreign policy interests. For the America First crowd, Israel cannot provide megabillion-dollar deals as the Saudis and Emirates can, but is instead a liability that can drag us into another Middle East war. For Progressives, Israel is irredeemably a pariah. A colonialist, apartheid, occupying victimizer of the righteous Palestinian people who have been robbed of their land. For them, Israel’s very existence is open for debate. They are tone deaf that calling for two states after Oct. 7 is vehemently opposed by the vast majority of Israelis, and do not care if imposing a Palestinian state will endanger the Jewish one.
Today, pro-Israel Americans are confused and frightened as the American President whose pro-Israel actions during his first term were unrivaled, i.e., moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Jerusalem as the Israeli capital, recognizing Israeli sovereignty of the Golan Heights, is now in discussions with the Iranian Shiite jihadists who are masters of manipulative negotiations and religiously sanctioned lying, taqiyah.
So, are the administration’s actions sidelining Israel in negotiations with Syria, the Houthis, and direct talks with Hamas a harbinger for a surprise announcement of a repackaged US-Iranian nuclear deal (JCPOA) that neglects existential Israeli interests? I can tell you after speaking with Israeli government officials that they are extremely worried.
As the Jewish Insider said, “the most consequential divergence of the Trump administration from conventional conservative views is on foreign policy, most recently its seemingly growing disconnect from Israel on issues ranging from Iran nuclear negotiations to the war against the Houthis in Yemen and the state of the war in Gaza.”
The administration wants deals and diplomatic victories and wishes the Iran issue would disappear. The President wants a negotiated win, while Israel needs the nuclear program dismantled. The ascendant isolationist or “restraintist” Republican wing of the party that prioritizes an America First agenda gives much less weight to the needs of allies.
America’s special relationship with Israel is being redefined, and no matter who follows Trump as President, elements of both parties have become more critical of Israel, questioning the necessity of a special relationship with an international pariah that uses up so much American diplomatic capital. The issues include the time Israel needs to deal with its multifront challenges, especially in Gaza, the necessity for America to continue military assistance, and whether Israel is still vital for US interests.
If the MAGA movement’s charismatic and controversial leader is succeeded after the 2028 Presidential election by another like-minded populist, isolationist foreign policy may be the new normal.
Alternatively, but less likely, would be a return to an internationalist mindset, repairing international relationships and prioritizing the US-Israel relationship, returning to global economic deals and away from tariffs.
A March 2025 Gallup poll of Americans should be a red flashing light for those in the US and Israel who support and want to strengthen the US-Israel relationship. Less than 50% of Americans are sympathetic toward Israelis (46%). While 75% of Republicans sympathize with Israelis vs.10% Palestinians, an eye-opening 59% of Democrats sympathize with Palestinians vs. only 21% identifying with Israelis. The trend lines are not good for those who have counted on the stability of the partnership.
The Democratic party is also rethinking its foreign policy goals, with Israel in the crosshairs. In the case of much of the progressive wing, Israel’s right to exist is an open question, especially among the younger generation. You will rarely hear words democracy or ally used by this constituency concerning the Jewish state. Instead, apartheid, genocidal, and colonialist are more likely, despite Israel being a nation where the majority are people of color, where a majority are of families who have fled Arab countries, ethnically cleansed, since 1948.
In America today, social media is the dominant voice for information, and algorithms create confirmational bias to reaffirm users’ viewpoints in their echo-chamber cocoons. It is not a helpful path forward to develop respectful and effective American foreign policy, especially when discussing Israel.
Part of the Israeli mission is to defend Jews all around the world, not just Israeli Jews. Americans and Israelis were traumatized not only by the massacre of Oct.7 but also by witnessing the Jew-hatred of Oct. 8 and beyond at American universities, which became cesspools of anti-Semitism. The toxic combination of cowardly administrators, indoctrinating anti-Zionist academicians, and liberal Democrat Israel supporters who were cowed by the Bernie Sanders anti-Israel wing of the party was part of the appeal leading to the rise of President Trump. This, too, is a factor in the US-Israel relationship.
For defense and intelligence-minded Americans who prioritize the security and military partnership with Israel, they have had to go back to basics, explaining why supporting Israel strengthens American national security interests. Whether it is the enemies of America that Israel has neutralized, as in the case of the perpetrators of the bombing of the US Marine barracks in Lebanon, killing 241 US service members, or the R&D that makes US weapons systems even better, or Israeli medical innovations for the battlefield that have saved our soldiers’ lives, or that Israel’s enemies are America’s enemies, the case for the relationship’s importance needs to be updated and promoted with a robust and well-financed public relations campaign in addition to the advocacy of pro-Israel candidates.
America has choices in foreign relationships, but Israel does not. America is Israel’s most indispensable ally and the only one it can count on. Suppose Trump makes a dangerous nuclear deal threatening Israel’s existence. In that case, it must decide whether to swallow the indignities and make the best of a terrible situation or go it alone. Suppose Israel defies Trump and attacks Iran after the President makes a deal. In that case, Israel will be out in the cold, and resuscitating the relationship will be tough in the short term. This is a worst-case scenario, but not unrealistic.
As the NY Times reported, when “Trump shook hands with Syria’s new leader and promised to lift sanctions, it was a vivid demonstration of how the president’s Middle East diplomacy has all but sidelined Israel. Mr. Trump was effectively shrugging off the views of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. There is no indication that the United States is abandoning its historic ties with Israel or will stop its military and economic support. But Mr. Trump’s five-day tour through the Middle East underscored a new dynamic, one in which Israel – and Mr. Netanyahu, in particular – is something of an afterthought.”
The challenges to the long-term partnership in 2025 are perhaps the most consequential in Israel’s history. Israel must be united and choose wisely. ■
This article originally appeared in the June 23, 2025, edition of The Jerusalem Report.
Dr. Mandel is the Director of MEPIN, the Middle East Political Network. He briefs members of Congress, their foreign policy aides, and the State Department. He is the senior security editor of the Jerusalem Report.