Supporters of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces offer condolences over the deaths of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi and others, outside the Iranian Embassy in Baghdad on May 20, 2024. Thaier Al-Sudani /Reuters
In the last few months, no one could have imagined that Hezbollah in Lebanon, the crown jewel of the Iranian Ring of Fire, with upwards of 200,000 projectiles aimed at Israel, would have been so degraded. James Bond-like operations involving pager and walkie-talkie explosions featured on the American TV news program 60 Minutes, followed by Israel’s devastating attacks against the Hezbollah military infrastructure, changed the face of the Middle East.
No one predicted that the Turkish-backed Syrian rebels (HTS) would use Hezbollah’s weakness to start a march south from their stronghold in northwest Syria, conquering the state in days while exposing the Russian and Iranian-backed Syrian army as just a paper tiger. HTS correctly perceived that Hezbollah fighters and the Russian air force were not going to come to the aid of Syrian President Bashar Assad as they did 10 years ago.
Add to this destruction of the Hamas military infrastructure into guerrilla units, and the Iranian ring of fire surrounding Israel doesn’t look so formidable anymore. American media are now focused on the Houthis in Yemen as the last remaining link in the chain of fire against Israel, whose advanced missiles have surprised the West.
However, this ignores a much larger, more dangerous, and consequential proxy of Iran in Iraq that is not making the headlines at the moment. With the focus on Yemen and the Houthis highlighted as the last remaining Iranian proxy, in reality it is the Iranian-controlled Iraqi militias (Popular Mobilization Forces, PMF or PMU) that may be the most difficult Iranian proxy to degrade. This is not to minimize the damage the Iranian Houthi proxy has done to Red Sea shipping, terrorizing central Israel citizens and undermining American prestige by defiantly getting away with this.
Although PMFs were instrumental in working with the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps) in Syria, today they are biding their time after the fall of Assad, waiting for Iran’s next move against Israel and the US. In the future, they can become Iran’s primary vanguard when the patient Islamic Republic of Iran decides again to extend its reach into the Levant. Jihadist strategic patience exploits Western impatience, which, after just a few weeks, is ready to give the Syrian jihadist leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani the benefit of the doubt to lead a tolerant and moderate regime.
The Iranian-controlled Iraqi militias are not only a threat to Israel but also to the US. Michael Knight of the Washington Institute said, “Amid significant setbacks for Iran’s so-called axis of resistance (one of the leaders) of the Ahd Allah Islamic Movement in Iraq has called for targeting all US assets… including embassies. His organization receives direct funding from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei… (as) one of the most significant figures within muqawama (resistance) circles in Iraq.”
For historical context, beginning with the rise of ISIS in 2014, Iran used the opportunity of a weakened Iraq being overrun by the ISIS Sunni jihadists to increase the number of Iranian-controlled militias under the control of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) within Iraq.
What started as a desperate fight against ISIS after the fall of Mosul and the call for Iraqis to rise to defend the nation by Iraqi spiritual leader Ayatollah Sistani was exploited by Iran, culminating in 2018 when the Iranian PMFs were integrated into the Iraqi military but remained under the authority of the IRGC and its Supreme Leader. Iraqi government financial resources that were supposed to go to Iraqi-controlled forces under Iraqi government control were now going to the Iranian PMFs, the ultimate Iranian proxy situation in a secondary ring of Iranian fire around Israel. Today, the PMFs and their political arms even influence the Iraqi Supreme Court, exposing their infiltration into Iraq that goes beyond military dimensions.
Ironically, Shi’ite Iran and the United States were on the same side against Sunni ISIS. For some misguided Obama-era foreign policy officials who were always looking to rehabilitate Iran and weaken the US-Israel relationship, they thought the common threat of ISIS would be a chance for rapprochement with the Supreme Leader. Khamenei is still laughing at the naivete. Iran has been meddling in Iraq since the US invasion in 2003, working with Shi’ite militias. With the Obama US withdrawal in 2011, three years before the rise of ISIS, Iran hastened the process of infiltrating and influencing Iraqi militias, which then significantly increased with the rise of the Islamic State, which controlled vast swaths of Iraqi and Syrian territory.
According to the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, “Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq…(swelled from)…4,000 personnel in 2010 to over 60,000 in 2014 when they plugged into government funding…A broader range of Special Groups now exist than when the US military left Iraq in 2011, underlining the diversification of actors that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force (IRGC-QF) works with in today’s Iraq.”
Ranj Alaadin, fellow at the Brookings Middle East Council on Global Affairs, wrote in 2024, “The Popular Mobilization Force (PMF) is on its way to becoming Iraq’s preeminent political and institutional power, with its economic power also expanding. The umbrella militia organization, which is led by Iran-aligned factions, has markedly enhanced its influence over the Iraqi state and government….PMF vies with its rivals for state contracts, diverted customs revenues that generate $10 billion annually and controls illegal taxation that yields $300,000 a day…The PMF also oversees a vast property empire and economic network.”
Contemporaneous to these actions that undermined US interests, the Biden administration inexplicably chose to ignore almost all of the nearly 200 attacks by PMF forces directed against American soldiers in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan since the Hamas October 7 attack. The Iranian goal was transparent: get the US out of the region and control Iraq as a proxy nation. The lack of a consequential American response was interpreted as a weakness and an invitation to more attacks. The Biden doctrine, which says there should be no escalation at any cost, revealed a complete lack of understanding of how the region operates.
I discussed the Iranian-directed attacks that occurred before October 7, 2023, against US troops without a meaningful American response in May 2023 in Doha with the US ambassador to Qatar. Ambassador Davis told me that everyone in the region, including Iran, knows we are the most potent force. I responded that they might know we have the strongest military in the region with the ability to strike with profound consequences, but they also see the administration is fearful of responding, worried it could escalate into a regional war. Unfortunately, the traumatic brain injuries suffered by our troops are not inconsequential, with grave long-term sequela for the wounded soldiers while increasing the chances for more of our soldiers to be attacked in the future.
In December, I debated on Iraqi TV with a professor from the University of Baghdad, who leads an Iraqi think tank and is an adviser to the Iraqi government. I said Iraq needs to come to the realization that Iran is using them for Iranian, not Iraqi, interests. I made the case that since Iran is weakened by the loss of its Lebanese, Syrian, and Gazan proxies, there is now a window of opportunity for Iraq to begin to break free of the Islamic Republic and set a new course for Iraqi liberation.
Iraq’s future should be aligned with the US and the Gulf states if for no other reason than that the financial help Iraq can receive is far greater than a bankrupt Iran can provide. Iran and Iraq are both Shia, but Iraq and the Gulf states are both Arabs. The Iranian Persian leadership looks down on its Arab neighbors, considering their historical Persian civilization superior.
There are reports that the US is now finally pressuring Iraq to rid itself of Iranian influence. This will be very hard, but it is doable. Iranian militias are just one problem. The militias evolved into political parties that have sway in the Iraqi government. According to Al-Jazeera, in December 2023 the Iran-aligned coalition won 101 out of 285 seats in provincial elections and “is boosted in advance of parliamentary elections in 2025.”
Iran would rather incite the minority Sunni Arab Iraqis against the Iraqi majority Shi’ites and create another civil war than accept being thrown out of Iraq, which they consider an essential proxy to regain Persian hegemony in the Middle East.
What should the US do to help Iraq break free? The most crucial action would be a US-Israel strike to destroy the Iranian nuclear program. That is one degree of separation from emboldening the Iraqis to become independent.
Even if Iraq loosens the Iranian grip, it will still have to deal with its domestic politics. Iraq is an artificial nation created by colonial powers over 100 years ago after World War I. It will have to figure out how the Shi’ite majority can share the country with the Kurds in the north and the Sunni Iraqi Arabs, primarily in the center of Iraq. Like Syria, Iraq was ruled by a Baathist regime that persecuted the majority Sunni population and minority Kurdish population until the US overthrew Saddam Hussein’s tyrannical regime.
According to Michael Knight, one of the few US successes in Iraq is the CTS, a counterterrorism force of 14,000 soldiers that the Iranian-controlled PMFs are now infiltrating. “CTS is one of the most cost-effective efforts the United States has supported in Iraq.” Despite CTS corruption, it is one of the last significant Iraqi forces the US influences, but the 2024 NDAA passed by Congress may end its funding. We need to realize if you have half a loaf in Iraq, it is the best you can hope for.
Suppose Iraq cannot break free from Iran. In that case, the nation will not prosper, and even worse, the conditions for another devastating civil war are just waiting to be ignited by outside actors, in particular the Islamic regime. And to add to the challenges Iraq faces, Turkey operates from Iraqi territory to fight Turkish Kurdish PKK militias. Iraqi Kurds have distanced themselves from the PKK, but this has not stopped Turkish meddling in Iraq.
Kurdistan in Iraq’s north is an essential base for US military interests, bordering Iran, Turkey, and Russia. Iran, Turkey, and the PMFs, as well as Iraqi Arabs, have their eyes on Kurdistan and its oil resources. US forces should remain in Kurdistan, with particular attention to protecting Kurdistan from more PMF Iranian-directed missile attacks.
What should the US and the Arab neighbors of Iraq do? Use the current Iranian weakness with the degradation of its proxy system as an opportunity to create a financial support package for Iraq in exchange for kicking out the Iranians. This will take leadership from the Trump administration, which sees the region as something to run from, and according to Trump, it is not our problem. That would be a mistake, as the Middle East always comes calling, and the US should exert its influence now when Iran is down before it regains its footing. ■
This article originally appeared in the January 20, 2025, issue of The Jerusalem Report.
Eric R. Mandel is the director of MEPIN, the Middle East Political Information Network. You can follow him on Instagram @drericmandel on X @MepinOrg.