People outside the Kirya military headquarters in Tel Aviv walk past a billboard bearing the name of the Israel-Iran war, June 19, 2025. Photo by Chaim Goldberg/Flash90.
And the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is poised to exploit it.
So much has been written about “the day” after Hamas in Gaza. However, what comes next in Iran is a far more consequential scenario for U.S. national security, global power competition and regional stability.
Iran is entering a dangerous new phase—not one shaped by diplomacy but by the unchecked consolidation of military power by the regime’s most formidable force: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). That vacuum of power has been accelerated by Israel’s June 2025 air campaign, which struck deep inside Iran, targeting the IRGC’s military infrastructure and leadership in the past 20 months of degrading its proxy network.
Before the Hamas-led terrorist attacks in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Western analysts focused on who would eventually succeed the aging Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, now 86. But that debate missed the point. Whoever follows him will likely be handpicked by the IRGC—a figurehead, not a leader. Israel’s military actions have hastened the IRGC’s transformation from an elite ideological force loyal to the supreme leader into the regime’s undisputed center of power.
If the IRGC solidifies control, then the world can expect a far more extreme, expansionist and nuclear-aggressive Iran with devastating consequences for the Iranian people and the entire region.
Formed in 1979 to defend the Islamic Revolution, the IRGC has evolved into a “state within a state” that commands enormous influence over Iran’s foreign policy, economy and internal repression.
Militarily, the IRGC oversees Iran’s nuclear-weapons program, missile program, regional proxy forces, cyber units and the feared Quds Force, which directs operations abroad. It controls the Basij paramilitary, intelligence services, censorship organs and much of Iran’s domestic repressive security apparatus.
Economically, it dominates key sectors, including oil, construction, banking and telecommunications, mainly through the Khatam al-Anbiya conglomerate. The U.S. Treasury and independent analysts estimate the IRGC controls or influences up to 40% of Iran’s GDP.
In June 2025, Israel conducted coordinated airstrikes against IRGC infrastructure in Iran, Syria and Iraq. The goal was to degrade the IRGC’s regional operational capabilities and hinder its clandestine nuclear-weapons development.
According to Israeli security sources, the strikes hit IRGC training centers, missile depots, drone factories and underground nuclear facilities. In doing so, Israel revealed to its population and the wider region the regime’s vulnerabilities.
That campaign has created a destabilizing vacuum inside the Iranian power structure. In response, expect the IRGC to crack down harder on dissent and mobilize its proxy militias. However, the regime’s internal fragmentation is becoming increasingly difficult to conceal. Without a coherent civilian government or legitimate theological leadership, the IRGC rapidly becomes the default authority unless America decides to support the Iranian people.
Without regime change, which is not official U.S. policy, Washington must accept the reality that Iran’s future may not be shaped by clerical succession but by military consolidation of authoritarian kleptocrats. That means preparing for a more radical, expansionist IRGC-led Iran armed with a nuclear breakout capability. Expect:
• More internal repression and persecution of civil society;
• Escalated attacks on U.S. Gulf allies and maritime assets;
• The resurgence of proxy warfare in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen;
• Greater cyberattacks and assassination plots abroad, with the activation of sleeper cells;
• Reconstitution of the nuclear-weapons infrastructure out of sight of a monitoring mechanism.
The IRGC has no interest in compromise. It thrives on anti-Western confrontation and imperialist ideology. Its ascendancy would threaten not just Israel but every pro-Western state in the Middle East.
As such, Washington, Brussels, Jerusalem and Gulf capitals must begin planning for an IRGC-led Iran.
That means:
Enhancing Sanctions Enforcement: The IRGC is already designated a U.S. Foreign Terrorist Organization. Now is the time to enforce and increase secondary sanctions on its shell companies, global partners, and illicit trade routes, especially in Asia and the Gulf.
Bolstering Regional Alliances: Israel’s June campaign proved both what is possible and what is necessary. America should accelerate joint missile defense integration with Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. Closer cooperation and normalization with Israel is no longer optional. It is essential.
Supporting Iranian Civil Society: The IRGC’s grip on the information space can be challenged. The United States and its allies must support Persian-language satellite media, fund circumvention technologies, provide safe platforms for dissent and financially support Iranians organizing nationwide protests.
Backing Israel’s Deterrent Role: Even if a nuclear agreement is reached, the IRGC is likely to cheat. Washington must publicly support Israel’s right to self-defense and preemptive strikes when necessary. Israel’s actions in June were not an escalation; they were deterrence.
Any new nuclear agreement, no matter who is in power, must include, at a minimum:
• Complete decommissioning of Iran’s uranium enrichment and plutonium programs;
• Permanent cessation of ballistic-missile development;
• Unrestricted access for American inspectors in conjunction with the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA;
• Cessation of funding for terrorist proxies.
Much of the Washington foreign-policy establishment continues to ask what happens if the Iranian regime falls. A better question is: What if it doesn’t but evolves into something worse?
The Israeli actions did not create this reality. It was going to happen regardless; the transformation was already underway. Iran was shifting from a clerical theocracy to a military autocracy, governed not by Divine guidance but by ideological coercion and military might. The IRGC is the future face of the regime, and the West must treat it accordingly.
Israel has slowed the pace of the march towards nuclear weapons, which was the worst-case outcome, now offering America and its regional allies some time to plan for what’s next and to permanently prevent a nuclear Iran.
Israel’s June 2025 strikes tore away the illusion of a stable, ideologically coherent regime. In its place is a growing IRGC leviathan, driven by extremism and unchecked ambition. The United States must act now—before Iran’s transformation becomes irreversible.
This article originally appeared in the Jewish News Syndicate on June 25, 2025.
Dr. Eric R. Mandel is the director of MEPIN, the Middle East Political Information Network, and the senior security editor of The Jerusalem Report. He briefs members of Congress, their foreign-policy teams, and the U.S. State Department on Middle East security and strategy.